Which States Are Poised for Jobs Growth?

As the U.S. jobs market digs its way out of the recession, gains aren’t expected to be evenly distributed. But some of the hardest-hit regions may also see some of the best growth, according to a new analysis.

Forecasting firm IHS Global Insight looked at which states will have the strongest rates of expansion through 2017. The company’s regional economic group made forecasts determined by the macroeconomic outlook, including demographic assumptions, historical and cyclical trends and other factors such as oil prices and tax policy.

Most of the states expected to see the largest employment gains are also states that have seen big gains in population. That’s good news for places like Texas and Utah that have relatively low unemployment rates compared to the national average. It’s still a positive development for growing states such as Florida, Nevada and Arizona, but their higher unemployment means there will be lots of competition for those new jobs.

Some states also seem positioned for strong growth because they were hit so hard by the recession. “Some of the southern states seem poised for growth not so much because they’re booming, but because they’re starting from a lower point with more room to expand,” said Steven Frable of IHS.

But there are also hard-hit states that are going to come back more slowly. Michigan, for example, faced structural problems even before the recession started and there’s little to suggest the state will see strong growth.

California, another state battered by the recession, isn’t expected to experience employment growth much faster than the U.S. average. While some areas will see gains from high-tech and manufacturing jobs moving in, the state has also seen its population growth slow.