Hiring News Increasing, Layoff News Decreasing

Is the recession over or not?  Will we see a jobless recovery or will we
return to boom times?  The easiest answer
is the inverse of the joke: 

Q: How do you know the difference between a recession and a
depression?

A:  It's a recession
when your neighbor loses his job.  It's a
depression when you lose yours.

The recession will be over for many seeking work when they
get stable work that pays a decent wage and has adequate security.  Until then, the pressure to find the right
work and the desire to attain full employment continues to nag.

I wanted to see if I could uncover a trend to indicate how
things are going, and turned to the global guru, Google News Archive, to see
what I could see.

Layoff
Stories Decreasing

Figure 1 below shows the indication of the word layoff in
news articles over the past 70 years. 
The increase in the 90's and recently reflect the realities of the present
day workscape.

Figure 1:  Occurrence of the word "layoff" in news
stories 1940-2009 - Source:  Google

Figure 2 below shows just how dramatic this recession has
been.  Notice that the mention of layoffs
is more than double that which occurred in 2001 and 2002, a very challenging
time to be looking for work.

Figure 2.  Occurrence of the word "layoff" in news
stories 2000-2009

Let's look at the most important timeline, this year.  Figure 3 below shows a steady decrease in
news articles on "layoffs"  This is a
good indication that we may have hit bottom. (September excluded in this
downward trend).  And October was not
over when I ran the analysis.

Figure 3.  Occurrence of the word "layoff" in news
stories in 2009

Hiring
Stories Increasing

Let's switch gears to the glass half full side of the
equation and examine what the Google Guru has to say about hiring.  Notice in Figure 4 below how the incredible
surge in hiring in news articles beginning in the 1980s, how it peaked in the
mid 90's and has been dropping ever since.

Figure 4.  Occurrence of the word "hiring" in news
stories 1930-2009

Figure 5 below drills into the past decade and shows an
increase in the number of articles recently. 
This could be a good indicator. 

Figure 5.  Occurrence of the word "hiring" in news
stories 2000-2009

Finally, let's look at what you'd care most about, this
year.  Figure 6 below shows the trend for
news stories about "hiring" has been steady, and has risen in August and
September (It's still October, so we'll discount that part of the year).

Figure 6.  Occurrence of the word "hiring" in news
stories in 2009

To be fair, Google doesn't differentiate between employers
that are hiring and a need for
hiring.  But examining all the news
sources that Google has brought together does show that there has been an
increase in articles on hiring, and that's a good thing for job seekers.

With the focus on hiring coupled with a decrease in stories
on layoffs, perhaps we are moving out of the recession.  Of course, it will only be over when you have
a stable, well-paying job.