Sourcing Trends and Predictions 2010

From ERE Net by Lou Adler

Jun 26, 2009, 5:59 am ET

Over
the past six months, I've worked with dozens of major companies and
some of the latest new recruiting and sourcing technologies. Based on
this, it's not a reach to contend that how companies will find,
recruit, and hire top talent in 2010 and beyond will be far different
than how it's been done in the past few years.

I'll also make the contention that only a few companies are ready
for this shift and none of the predictions below are far-fetched.

For one thing, they're now being successfully tried out today in
some form by big-time companies. More important - they work, especially
on a recruiting-ROI basis. I define this as the quality and impact a
candidate makes divided by the cost and effort to find and hire the
person. (Email me if you'd like to review this Recruiting ROI calculation.)

To further validate some of the more "off the wall" predictions, I've tied the major points to an online survey. They results are currently posted, providing an instant view of where your company stands in comparison to your competition.

With the idea of getting ahead of the recovery, here are my 2010 New Year's predictions for sourcing and recruiting:

1. Job boards will soon be archaic. Major job board
   advertising will continue to decline as corporations finally realize
   that posting individual requisitions on these boards targets "C+" type talent. Money spent here will be reallocated to sourcing programs that actually work.


2. The talent hub and spoke model will dominate active candidate sourcing.
   Requisition-based advertising will be replaced by bundling similar jobs
   into talent hubs. Traffic will be driven to this hub via a variety of
   ever-changing sourcing spokes (blogs, niche boards, social networks,
   user groups, specialty sites, etc.).


3. Sourcing spokes will come and go. This
   search-engine-optimized "talent hub and spoke" model will dominate
   active candidate sourcing with new spokes, like Twitter and Facebook,
   coming and going. Jobs2Web
   and TalentSeekr seem well-poised to dominate this market in the short
   term, with First Advantage's HireEngine, among others, entering the
   fray.


4. Applicant tracking systems will eventually react and adapt to the new model.
   ATS's will finally re-architect their systems to adapt to this new
   dynamic sourcing model, but they will not be the driver behind this
   change. So expect to continue to be disappointed with lag times of one
   year or more.


5. Companies will be unprepared for the spike in turnover.
   There will be a six-month spike in hiring as a result of a big jump in
   voluntary turnover once the recovery begins in earnest. The current
   pent-up demand for new jobs will finally be unleashed then, as nearly
   everyone enters the job hunting market. Expect counteroffers and
   compensation to increase.


6. Twitter will not become the silver bullet. Twitter
   will be one of the spokes in the talent hub model, but not a dominate
   source of candidates. However, it will be a very useful means to spread
   the news about open opportunities to a company's prospect pool. Here's a very short survey you can take that validates this.


7. Effort will increase to source passive candidates.
   Passive candidate sourcing and recruiting will become more aggressive,
   since this represents 70% of the population (based on surveys
   indicating that 20%-30% is active). In the short term, LinkedIn, ZoomInfo, and Broadlook will be the primary tools used to find passive candidates,
   in combination with strong recruiters to drive the process to closure.
   However, the ERP (see below) will become an increasingly important
   driver of this.


8. Just-in-time hiring and virtual recruiters will soon arrive.
   Companies are now building propriety databases of top talent nurtured
   by CRM (candidate relationship management) workflow systems. These
   systems are now becoming more robust with the addition of advanced
   workflow design and auto-responders. This will result in an online
   "virtual recruiter" automatically converting prospects into interested
   candidates. Avature and First Advantage's Talon seem to be leading the
   pack here.


9. The employee referral program will become the primary driver for future sourcing.
   The traditional ERP will be transformed into a far-reaching network of
   top talent by integrating it directly with tools like LinkedIn,
   Twitter, and Facebook. This way the ERP will quickly become the prime source of prospects for a company's proprietary talent pool.


10. There will be increased focus on implementing "Hiring A-level talent" training for both recruiters and hiring managers.
    Recruiting, interviewing, and hiring A-level talent who have multiple
    opportunities requires strong recruiters and sophisticated hiring
    managers. Few corporations can pull this off without a significant
    investment in the proper training. (Email me for info
    on who does this best.) This void will keep external recruiters in
    business by hunting down companies that haven't figured out how to do
    this.

Peering into the future, it's pretty clear that sourcing active candidates will largely rely on a search-engine-optimized talent hub and spoke
replacing traditional requisition-based advertising. More important
will be the use of proprietary talent pools powered by a "virtual
recruiter." This capability will provide companies the opportunity to
hire truly passive candidates before they enter the market. For those
companies that haven't built these models, and to fill specific
critical needs, there will be increased reliance on advanced passive
candidate recruiting approaches including continued use of external
agencies.

As I indicated earlier, I don't think any of this is too tough to
predict, since most progressive companies are already moving in these
directions.

However, too many companies think this can all happen without the
total involvement of the executive team and every single line manager.
This has been the weakest link in the chain in the past, and my
prediction for the future is that it will continue to be the problem. I
have seen very little effort to get hiring managers totally engaged,
and because of this, hiring top talent will still be problematic,
despite the efforts of HR and recruiting leaders and some innovative
technologies.