For many across the nation, it just doesn't feel like we are stabilizing and recovering. Especially for the millions who are unemployed, looking for work, or in need of better jobs.
There are two factors delaying hiring:
1. Employers aren't hiring
Employers aren't hiring not because they don't need workers, but because they are afraid of a potential "other shoe dropping" with the economy. The shocks over the past 2 years have employers worried. And, they cannot get access to capital. Employers cannot hire if they cannot get access to capital to pay for expansion. This includes hiring. In an earlier feature, BetterJobsFaster highlighted that productivity in the US is at an all-time high. That means that folks who are working are doing more than ever. Businesses want to expand, and only when they can again gain access to capital can they.
2. People postponing retirement
When economic shocks hit everyone goes into lockdown mode. It isn't just that 401k plans took a beating over the past year that folks are delaying retirement. And it isn't just that Americans have extraordinary debt. It's fear the prevents people from retiring. A large change like retirement is a dramatic change in lifestyle for folks who have been accustomed to the grind for the past 40 years plus. When so much fear and panic are out there, yankee pragmatism says be conservative and go with what's safest. In this case, it's holding onto your job. As a result, openings aren't as high as they would be in ordinary times.
Why does it feel so much worse than the numbers show? The graph to the right shows the difference between the jobless rate (those out of work) and the unemployment rate (those collecting unemployment checks). You'll notice a dramatic difference. Jobless rates are under-represented. As a result, we always feel that things are worse than they are - because they are.
5 predictions for 2010
1. Bank lending and employer confidence return strongly resulting in increased hiring
In my discussions with employers, workforce professionals, and leaders across the US, I'm seeing signs that the economic engine is making progress and hiring will turn around earlier than others are predicting. There is a "recession fatigue" hitting us all, but many employers have more work than they have been hiring for.
2. The Federal Jobs Creation Initiative will not have a dramatic impact in 2010
The Federal government can only create jobs by creating Federal jobs. They cannot cause employers to hire. They can influence hiring trends and patterns. For example, Brazil's government capped the work week at 36 hours maximum to drive employment. Perhaps we should be looking at requiring employers to provide vacation equivalents to our brothers and sisters in Europe. That would spark hiring.
We haven't seen leadership from Congress on jobs creation initiatives. Leadership is directed to the White House, and the Obama camp is repeating campaign themes for green jobs, including weatherizing public buildings and housing and building a smart energy grid. These two areas are intelligent initiatives, but will require a strong and rapid training program and to roll them out in a significant fashion takes longer than most American's patience. As a result, states and the Federal government are hurrying to spend the money as quickly as possible to show results - and they are spending it on "shovel-ready" projects. Shovel-ready projects are exactly that - jobs that require shovels. Most of the money is spent on road and bridge repairs. That's why the price of asphalt tripled as soon as initiatives were announced. But this spending, while creating needed infrastructure for future growth and competitiveness, does not result in long term, high paying jobs. Governments are concerned that the end of these programs will result in increased unemployment as the workers will become idle.
3. We will see a rapid rise in entrepreneurism
So many people laid off across all factions of the business spectrum with idle time and brilliant ideas coupled with low costs to create a business will drive a strong entrepreneurial economy in 2010.
4. 2010 will see a surge in temp hiring
Employers hire temps before they hire full time workers. Watch for a rise in temp hiring as a preview for full time hiring. (We are seeing this now). While temp jobs used to be administrative, they have shifted to all occupational sectors including lawyers, doctors, nurses, and white collar.
5. The college professor job model of work will appear in the workplace
College professors have responsibilities at their jobs to teach and meet with students. Many also have a consulting practice that augments their college work. This is different than moonlighting, or holding multiple jobs. As a result of re-engineering in the 1980's employees are responsible for their careers. They are just waking up to the fact that this shift in responsibility is also empowering. Google is capitalizing on this by encouraging employees to spend 20% of their time on projects that they want to do that will help the company. The model where workers do their jobs and can build their personal brands and business in adjunct to the business of work. This will show up especially stronger when the talent shortage hits in 2015. Watch for signs next year, however, and start thinking about a different model of work for yourself.
These predictions can be helpful to job seekers in helping to guide you to the places to watch for job opportunities and to chart your career path. My greatest hope is that 2010 will be prosperous, inspiring, and rewarding for you in achieving your career potential.